Understanding Barley Price Trends: Marketing Planning Doesn’t Require a Crystal Ball
This barley market report was provided by Leftfield Commodity Research.
Unpredictable markets make grain selling decisions very challenging. This has always been the case, but the level of uncertainty has risen in recent years as government policy has a greater impact on agricultural markets, and prices are increasingly affected by political decisions made in other countries.
Global Influences on Barley Price Trends
Some of the ‘traditional’ key influences for barley over the next few months include Chinese demand, the size of Australia and Argentina’s crops, the competitiveness of Canadian barley relative to other exporting countries, US corn values and the price of other feed grains in western Canada. Looking further ahead, seeded area next spring and early season weather will shape the outlook into the final months of the current marketing year and set the stage for the 2026/27 season. As much as one can develop a well-informed opinion on each of these (and other important) factors, they are only educated guesses, and still can’t account for any potential unforeseeable events might occur. It’s a daunting task if the success of one’s plan hinges on predicting these outcomes.
Seasonal Patterns in Barley Prices
Fortunately, something that can be very helpful without needing to ‘predict the unpredictable’ is understanding seasonal price patterns. Values typically follow a rhythm over the course of the year that is fairly consistent. Prices behave a certain way at different times for a reason, including the flow of farmer deliveries, export movement into key destinations, domestic end user buying patterns and logistical factors. That also means these trends don’t look the same for each crop.
In the case of feed barley, a low is established in the fall, followed by a rebound in early winter, and then showing additional firming into later spring before rolling over in the summer (the black line in the graph is the seasonal index, with the blue and red lines showing the average feed barley price in 2024 and 2025). The idea of prices coming under pressure during harvest and being stronger in spring isn’t surprising, although the persistence of seasonal tendencies despite all the external noise over the past number of years is noteworthy. The pattern for malt barley isn’t quite as pronounced, but there are some seasonal tendencies in that market as well.
Monthly Price Movements and Sales Planning
Having a sense of the average size of the price move from one month to the next can also be useful when mapping out potential sales. Over the past 10 years the average feed barley price in September was about C$0.50/bu lower than in early winter, while there hasn’t been as much fluctuation during the winter and early spring. The average drop-off from the spring peak into summer is around 7%. These swings are smaller in some years, but can be larger in others.
Exceptions to Seasonal Barley Price Trends
There are a few important things to keep in mind when incorporating seasonal price data into a selling plan. First, there are years when prices can deviate from the normal patterns (for example, the 2021 drought resulted in prices increasing during a period when they normally drift lower). The timing of seasonal peaks and valleys can also vary by a few weeks, something that was common this fall due to the later harvest in much of western Canada. Finally, the size of the move will differ from one year to the next.
Combining Fundamentals with Seasonal Trends
Fundamental analysis is still a critical part of developing a marketing plan as the supply and demand balance shapes the potential range of prices and helps identify which crops have more upside potential and downside risk. But understanding the seasonal price patterns for each crop allows for effective sales planning. After all, the ability to (as much as possible) avoid sales during times when prices are typically soft and targeting windows that normally show strength tilts the odds a little more in your favour, without the need to try and predict what the market will do in a world that is increasingly volatile.
Find more barley market reports here:
- Understanding Barley Price Trends: Marketing Planning Doesn’t Require a Crystal Ball
- Barley Market Report: Larger Canadian Barley Crop Sees Good Early Season Movement
- Barley Market Report: 2025 Canadian Barley Prices Face Harvest Pressure
- Barley Market Report: China Barley Imports Will Shape the Canadian Outlook for 2025/2026
- Barley Market Report: StatsCan and USDA Affirm Low North American Barley Acres
