Barley Market Report: StatsCan and USDA Affirm Low North American Barley Acres
This barley market report was provided by Leftfield Commodity Research.
Updated Barley Seeding Estimates Show Smaller Canadian Crop
At the end of June both StatsCan and USDA provided fresh 2025 seeded area estimates, giving a little more clarity on potential supply scenarios for the upcoming season. The earlier StatsCan March planting intentions for 6.28 mln acres of barley, the lowest since 2017, was based on a survey that took place from mid-December to mid-January. Many in the trade were expecting a bigger number in the June update given a relatively firm barley market into early spring and a high degree of uncertainty in some other crops. Instead, StatsCan nudged barley area even lower to 6.14 mln acres, down from 6.41 mln acres in 2024 and a 5-year average of 7.33 mln.
Yield Outlook Improves, But Production Still Historically Low
Seeded area only tells part of the story, with yields also being critical to the production outlook. Early dry conditions caused barley crop ratings in Saskatchewan and Alberta to dip to very low levels in mid-June, but have shown significant improvement the past few weeks after receiving beneficial rain. Not everywhere got the moisture it needed and regular rains will be required to maintain potential, but average yields for Canada overall look like an increasing possibility, which could result in production reaching 7.8 – 8.0 mln tonnes. This would still be the third-lowest crop in a decade, behind only 2017, when seeded area was unusually low, and the 2021 drought.
U.S. Barley Acres Edge Higher, But Crop Conditions Lag
USDA nudged their barley planting estimate slightly higher from the initial March intentions, now at 2.42 mln acres. This is up modestly from 2.37 mln acres in 2024, but less than the 5-year average of 2.77 mln and a historically low figure. The US barley crop has been struggling, recently rated at just 43% Good/Excellent, compared to 63% on average and the worst since 2021. This points to very small US barley production in 2025, likely below 3.0 mln tonnes. When combined with a tight old crop carryin, total supply could be even lower than in 2021/22.
North American Barley Supplies Remain Tight
Small North American barley supplies are favorable for prices, all else equal. However, demand is also important, and this is where the outlook is a little more uncertain. Perhaps the biggest threat for barley prices is US corn values. US corn acres a historically high 95.2 mln at the same time conditions are mostly favorable. The prospects for a big corn crop have pushed futures prices lower, making imported corn competitive into western Canadian feedlots. Already there are shipments being booked, which is displacing barley usage.
Export Outlook Hinges on China and Global Supply Trends
Canada’s barley export demand, of which China is by far the most important market, will also shape the outlook in 2025/26. Recent export data suggests Canada has remained competitive into that key market, although how that plays out over the coming year remains to be seen. Export potential will also be impacted production in other key shippers such as Ukraine, the EU and Australia, which combined could see larger crops for the coming year.
Market Outlook: Limited Upside in a Supply-Constrained Year
Even with conditions in western Canada improving and demand getting crimped by cheap US corn, barley ending stock for 2025/26 may fall below 1 mln tonnes, which is tight. Much has yet to play out, but this could potentially set up a scenario where prices spend much of the season trading in a range as low supplies provide some support, but a heavy corn market and competitive global export environment limit upside potential.
Find more barley market reports here:
- Barley Market Report: China Barley Imports Will Shape the Canadian Outlook for 2025/2026
- Barley Market Report: StatsCan and USDA Affirm Low North American Barley Acres
- Barley Market Report: March Barley Stock Estimations and Outlook
- Barley Market Report: Barley Production May Increase Across Major Exporters in 2025
- Barley Market Report: StatsCan and USDA Provide 2025 Barley Acreage Estimates
