Barley Market Report: China Barley Imports Will Shape the Canadian Outlook for 2025/2026

This barley market report was provided by Leftfield Commodity Research.

Canadian Barley Outlook 2025/26: Early Harvest Expectations

As the Canadian barley harvest enters its early stages, expectations point to a crop size of around 8.3 mln tonnes, up from initial projections after most of the prairies received much needed rain in late June and July. This is slightly higher than last year but below the 5-year average that is closer to 9.0 mln tonnes.

Tight Supplies Ahead—but Price Optimism Limited

Supplies will be relatively tight in 2025/26, but this doesn’t necessarily translate into a friendly price outlook. A heavy corn market continues to weigh on North American feed grain values and trims some barley usage in domestic rations. This could mean any upside potential for barley prices—aside from a normal firming after harvest lows—may depend on overseas markets, even though exports make up less than 30% of total Canadian barley demand.

Global Barley Supply: A Modest Rebound in 2025/26

Barley production across the major global exporters may be modestly higher in 2025/26, reaching just over 100 mln tonnes. This would be the largest crop in three years but still below the levels seen in the four prior seasons.

Australia, the largest exporter, is forecast by USDA to produce 12.5 mln tonnes, although beneficial rainfall could bump that up. The EU, the biggest producer and second-largest exporter, is expected to see a slight decline to 53.1 mln tonnes. Russia’s production may rise by 1 mln tonnes to 17.7 mln, while expectations for Ukraine are softening. Argentina is likely to hold steady year-over-year. In short, there’s little change on the global supply side.

Canadian Barley Outlook 2025/26: Global Trade Dynamics

World barley trade is projected to remain relatively flat in 2025/26, holding at 28.9 mln tonnes—about 2 mln below the 5-year average.

Feed barley demand in the Middle East and North Africa continues to be met largely by Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and Australia. Japan remains a steady, if smaller, market with imports around 1.2 mln tonnes annually. Canada is one of several reliable suppliers to this region.

China: The Wild Card in the Canadian Barley Outlook 2025/26

No country will influence global barley trade more than China in 2025/26. As the single largest importer, China has been averaging over 10 mln tonnes per year—making up a third or more of global barley imports.

Chinese barley imports dipped to 626,000 tonnes in June, their lowest monthly total since August 2023. While this is below the recent average of 900,000+ tonnes/month, it’s not necessarily cause for concern. Summer months often see reduced volumes, and barley prices in China remain stable—currently discounted to both corn and wheat, which could support continued demand.

However, with corn import projections declining, barley purchases from China may also ease in 2025/26.

Australia is China’s largest barley supplier, but Canada remains significant—shipping over 1.5 mln tonnes to China in the past 12 months. That’s roughly 80% of all Canadian barley exports, underscoring China’s dominance as our top market.

This heavy reliance can be a strength during times of strong demand and smooth trade. But in today’s climate of geopolitical uncertainty, it also makes Canadian barley highly vulnerable to trade disruption. Losing access to China would be a severe blow—one that could trigger price declines as Canada struggles to redirect such large volumes.

On the flip side, another year of strong Chinese demand could provide critical support for Canadian prices, cushioning the effects of weak feed grain markets elsewhere.

Find more barley market reports here:

• Barley Market Report: China Barley Imports Will Shape the Canadian Outlook for 2025/2026
• Barley Market Report: StatsCan and USDA Affirm Low North American Barley Acres
• Barley Market Report: March Barley Stock Estimations and Outlook
• Barley Market Report: Barley Production May Increase Across Major Exporters in 2025               
• Barley Market Report: StatsCan and USDA Provide 2025 Barley Acreage Estimates