Barley Market Report: 2025 Canadian Barley Prices Face Harvest Pressure       

This barley market report was provided by Leftfield Commodity Research.

Barley Prices Under Seasonal Harvest Pressure

Barley prices have been under pressure in western Canada over the past month. On the one hand, declining values going into harvest is normal behaviour, as there is a strong seasonal tendency for a late spring peak to be followed by two or three months of weakness prior to establishing a bottom in early fall. At the same time, the decline is a little deeper this year and steep drops in some other crops makes the entire complex feel particularly heavy.

Production and Supply Outlook

There are a few factors specific to feed barley that are contributing to the weakness beyond normal harvest pressure. First, the prairie crop improved during the summer, raising production estimates. The initial StatsCan production figure put barley at 7.99 mln tonnes, 1.9% below last year due to lower seeded area, and the second-smallest since 2017. This model-based estimated used data to the end of July, and it’s possible the final crop size ends up being bigger. So while barley production won’t be historically large, it has been increasing relative to earlier expectations.

Just as barley’s yield estimates improved during the summer, so has the outlook for other cereals such as wheat and oats. This is increasing the supply of prairie feed grains at the same time lower livestock numbers point to reduced domestic demand. Finally, the prospect for a record-large corn crop in the US has weighed on prices, with the threat of imports into western Canada keeping the feed grain complex in check.

Demand Dynamics in Feed and Export Markets

All of this might point to a dim outlook for barley prices going forward. But while the market certainly faces headwinds and a substantial rally seems unlikely, there are reasons to think the worst may be almost behind us. First, feed barley is becoming more competitively priced in western Canadian markets. Earlier in summer it was more economical for cattle feeders to source US corn into the key Lethbridge market than to purchase local barley. That changed over the past month as domestic feed barley softened while the cost of imported US corn stayed relatively flat. This should encourage more barley usage and slow down corn purchases.

Even if barley is competitive with local feeders, export markets will be relied upon to prevent stocks from building on-farm. Demand prospects could be encouraging here as well. Canadian barley is increasingly competitive in global markets when calculating an implied Vancouver price based on local elevator bids, something that may result in more business. Whether or not this translates into bigger shipments will primarily be driven by China, as they have been our largest export destination by far over the past decade. Barley prices in China are lower than corn and wheat, which may help import volumes.

Finally, normal seasonal trends point to prices improving once harvest has passed. While this isn’t exactly new news, the dynamic of values firming once the immediate harvest selling is behind and the crop is in the bin can sometimes be forgotten during the late summer window when markets are relentlessly grinding lower.

While somewhat of a cliché, there is truth to the saying ‘the cure for low prices is low prices’. The weakness in Canadian barley has made prices competitive with other feed grains in local markets and relative to other exporting countries globally. While not a quick fix, it may encourage additional demand around the margins, which will be supportive for prices. At the same time, expectations also need to be realistic, with the current environment likely setting up for rangebound trade after the typical post-harvest bounce rather than a big move higher.

Find more barley market reports here:

• Barley Market Report: 2025 Canadian Barley Prices Face Harvest Pressure       
• Barley Market Report: China Barley Imports Will Shape the Canadian Outlook for 2025/2026
• Barley Market Report: StatsCan and USDA Affirm Low North American Barley Acres
• Barley Market Report: March Barley Stock Estimations and Outlook
• Barley Market Report: Barley Production May Increase Across Major Exporters in 2025